China 2035: Three Scenarios for China’s Nuclear Program

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heritage.org

Andrew Harding, Madelyn Heaston, Robert Peters
China is in the midst of a “breathtaking” nuclear breakout and has rapidly become the fastest-growing nuclear power on the planet, currently producing 100 new nuclear weapons per year.REF This nuclear breakout is a departure from China’s half-century-long policy of “minimal deterrence,” posture, wherein it maintained approximately 200 nuclear weapons and a firm “no first use” declaratory policy.REF As the United States struggles to replace its aging nuclear arsenal,REF the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is increasing production, modernization, and expansion of expanding its nuclear arsenal as part of its goal to achieve a “world-class” military by 2049.REF

If China achieves nuclear parity with the United States, what could China’s ultimate nuclear ambitions be? Building off a June 2024 Backgrounder that argued that China likely seeks nuclear advantage, rather than nuclear parity,REF this report examines three possible futures for China’s nuclear program post-2035.REF The authors refer to 2035 because it is when the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) roughly estimates that China’s operationally deployed nuclear arsenal will reach numeric parity with that of the United States.REF

The three scenarios are ones in which China (1) achieves and accepts nuclear parity with the United States, (2) achieves and accepts nuclear advantage over the United States, (3) achieves nuclear primacy over both the United States and Russia. This report analyzes the potential rationales and force structures of each scenario before proposing policy recommendations to safeguard the American homeland.

The Action-Reaction Theory

There are a wide variety of theories among academics and political theorists that paint nuclear weapons in either a very positive or negative light. One of the most common theories discussed and argued is the action-reaction theory, which deals with strategic arms races and stockpiling.

The action-reaction theory posits that actions from one state initiate reciprocal actions from those of their rivals. This theory suggests that a tit-for-tat process leads to a rapid buildup of armaments,  » Read More
https://www.heritage.org/china/report/china-2035-three-scenarios-chinas-nuclear-program

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Types of Data
Primary Purpose for Collection and Use of Data
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Mailing List
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Mobile Devices
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Order Placement
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We use your information to perform our contract to provide you with products or services.
Partner Promotion
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Surveys
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We use this information to understand your opinions and collect information relevant to our organization.
Sweepstakes or Contests
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Website Interactions
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Web Logs
We collect information, including your browser type, operating system, Internet Protocol (IP) address (a number that is automatically assigned to a computer when the Internet is used), domain name, click-activity, referring website, and/or a date/time stamp for visitors.
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Revisions to This Policy

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I long ago lost any faith in what is commonly known as mainstream “news” recognizing that it’s not just how a story is framed, but also what is omitted in what passes for information these days.  There are many, many great authors and thinkers in conservative thought who have the freedom to focus not on narrative and instead on substance.

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