Colin Grabow
Colin Grabow
Earlier this month, President Trump paused his “Liberation Day” tariffs, citing an alleged desire from over 75 (unnamed) countries to launch negotiations on a range of trade-related issues. An optimistic interpretation is that the move confirms Trump’s use of tariffs as a cage-rattling tactic designed to secure improved trade deals. Short-term tariff pain will lead to long-term gains through the lowering and removal of foreign trade barriers.
Such thinking holds that while Trump’s methods may be highly unorthodox, they will ultimately produce a freer trade environment.
Even (generously) assuming this is the ardent protectionist’s goal, however, Trump’s approach is deeply flawed. Whatever is ultimately achieved in terms of reduced tariffs and trade barriers could be more easily obtained through free trade agreements.
To understand why, let’s first take stock of the enormous damage already inflicted. Uncertainty is up and business confidence is down as markets have been whipsawed and intricate supply chains imperiled. And there’s no end in sight. Indeed, additional tariffs might be on the way.
Just getting back to the tariff starting line will be no easy task.
If over 75 countries desire negotiations, that means over 75 negotiations must be concluded. That takes time. Bilateral free trade deals usually require 18 months, and even a US-Japan “mini-deal” covering 5 percent of bilateral trade took six months. Although President Trump claims he could wrap up the deals in a single day, this would almost certainly entail significant compromises on the scope of discussions.
Indeed, Sen. Bill Hagerty (R‑TN) recently said the deals might merely consist of written commitments from foreign governments to make various reforms. Aggressive tariff and trade barrier reductions would be unlikely, providing a meager return on President Trump’s costly approach.
Fortunately, there’s a more effective, expansive, and less disruptive way of securing lowered tariffs and trade barriers. » Read More
https://www.cato.org/blog/reciprocal-trade-barrier-reductions-are-goal-free-trade-agreements-are-solution