Joe D’Aleo, Kevin D. Dayaratna
Many politicians and pundits have suggested that the frequency and severity of hurricanes has been increasing due to greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. President Joe Biden, for example, has claimed over the course of his presidency that the effects of extreme weather—including Hurricane Ian in 2021—have been exacerbated by climate change.REF Others have echoed these concerns, including most recently Hurricanes Helene and Milton.REF This Special Report examines whether claims that hurricanes have increased in frequency and severity over time have any merit.
This report starts with a brief history of hurricanes, discussing the devastation they have caused for generations, well before climate change was ever a concern. It continues with a discussion of long-term trends in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes—the authors find no meaningful relationship to carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions.
This report also presents quantitative analysis of the severity of the economic damages caused by hurricanes. The analysis finds that although damages have indeed increased over the past century in conjunction with changes in CO2 emissions and global temperatures, these changes are a result of growth in societal wealth. In the broader context of economic growth, these results merely show that this income growth has enabled society to handle these adverse events more effectively.
Though there has been no long-term trend in hurricane activity, such activity does fluctuate over long cycles. The final section addresses natural factors that are associated with this cyclical incidence and severity of hurricanes. These factors have a much clearer and more compelling link to hurricanes than increases in global temperatures do. Taken together, the evidence is clear. Although there are factors that influence the incidence and severity of hurricanes, there has been no meaningful increase in these storms in modern times, and greenhouse gases are not responsible for their variation.
A Brief History of Hurricanes in America
Understanding the full extent of the history of hurricanes has proven difficult given that satellite monitoring of remote areas has only been possible since the 1970s. » Read More
https://www.heritage.org/energy/report/keeping-eye-the-storms-analysis-trends-hurricanes-over-time