Marc Joffe
Marc Joffe
In recent posts, I have looked at costly light rail projects in Austin and Minneapolis whose sponsors are seeking federal funding. Not to be outdone, Los Angeles has its own high-cost LRT extension in the Federal Transit Administration’s (FTA) grant pipeline. A change of administration is a great time to reevaluate these projects because they usually don’t pencil out under reality-based cost-benefit analysis. And even if they did pencil out, we’re still left with the question of why local transit agencies should be able to access billions of dollars from federal taxpayers to fund their initiatives.
LA Metro’s proposed Southeast Gateway Line is projected to cost $8.7 billion of which $3.7 billion would come from federal taxpayers. Relative to some other recent rail projects, which are clocking in at over $1 billion per mile, Southeast Gateway is a bargain at “just” $600 million for each of its 14.5 miles.
But the benefits Angelinos will get for the $8.7 billion expenditure are questionable. A ridership study conducted for the project’s Environmental Impact Report estimates that the line will carry just 31,000 on weekdays in 2042.
But these estimates are based on a pre-COVID-19 model. At the time that model was run, state demographers expected Los Angeles County’s population to reach 11.1 million in 2042. But the county suffered a large population decline during the pandemic, and forecasters have become more bearish on population growth. Their 2042 population forecast for Los Angeles County is now only 9.7 million.
Further, the propensity to use transit has fallen since COVID-19 due to the rise of remote work and concerns about safety on buses and trains. Between lower population and less willingness to use transit, it is likely that an updated modeling exercise will yield a significantly lower ridership projection.
But even if the projection of 31,000 rides per day could be achieved, » Read More
https://www.cato.org/blog/new-light-rail-project-los-angeles-comes-high-price