Austin Gae, Mario Loyola, Andrew Weiss
Over the past two decades, Texas has greatly expanded its renewable energy capacity. Since 2000, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) has added nearly 98 gigawatts (GW) of capacity. Of this new capacity, over 70 percent (69 GW) has come from wind and solar farms. In contrast, dispatchable generation—resources capable of adjusting output to meet system demand—has grown by only 30 GW during the same period.REF
Summer peak electricity demand in Texas is projected to grow by nearly 50 GW by the end of the decade, driven by rapid growth of data centers, cryptocurrency mining, and electrification of vehicles and the oil and gas industry.REF Meeting this demand surge will require a substantial buildout of reliable, dispatchable power sources that can maintain supply under all conditions.REF However, most planned capacity additions through the end of the decade remain heavily skewed toward intermittent resources.
ERCOT expects to add about 50 GW of intermittent renewable resource (IRR) capacity—primarily from solar energy—with only an additional 30 GW of dispatchable capacity in the same period. However, the numbers mask a more serious situation. IRRs normally produce only a fraction of their nominal output (also referred to as “nameplate capacity,” the plant’s theoretical maximum output). Solar power, for example, produces an average of just 24 percent of nominal capacity, and cannot be relied on to produce even that much when needed.REF Moreover, nearly 95 percent of this new dispatchable capacity will come from battery storage, which can only sustain output for a few hours. Only 4 GW will come from new natural gas–fired plants, and 2 GW of coal capacity is planned for retirement.REF
To help to address the projected lack of dispatchable power, the previous, 88th, Texas Legislature enacted House Bill (HB) 1500 in 2023. The statute obliges all wind and solar projects that commence commercial operation on or after January 1, » Read More
https://www.heritage.org/energy/report/restoring-reliability-the-texas-electric-grid