Parker Sheppard
Inflation remains stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target. Yet, instead of maintaining a firm stance at its December 18 meeting, the Fed cut interest rates for the third time in three months. The Fed should move slowly going forward and look for stronger evidence that post-pandemic inflation has run its course before continuing with cuts.
The costs of prematurely stopping the anti-inflation campaign are clear. Inflation cuts real wages for workers and erodes the real value of savings. It distorts markets by redistributing wealth and raising uncertainty about investment in the future. Left unchecked, it could erode trust in the monetary system, just as trust in American institutions is falling.
Multiple measures track inflation. The consumer price index (CPI), the most closely watched by the public, grew 2.7 percent over the 12 months that ended in November. The Fed’s preferred measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, grew 2.3 percent over the 12 months ending in October.
Other measures of trend inflation are even more elevated. Core CPI, which discards volatile food and energy prices, rose 3.3 percent over the preceding year. Median CPI, which gives an indication of the trend in inflation by ignoring extreme changes, went up 3.9 percent over the previous year, and has been above CPI growth for the past two years. Similarly, the Atlanta Fed’s Sticky-Price CPI, which highlights prices that are slow to change, increased 3.8 percent over the past year.
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https://www.heritage.org/monetary-policy/commentary/the-fed-lowered-interest-rates-too-soon